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August 20, 2011

MLS Castrol Ratings

(If you haven't heard about MLS Castrol Index I suggest you check it out before continuing on in the article. Long story short, it just rates a player's performance 0-10.)

There's a pretty interesting computerized rating system aimlessly floating around. I say aimlessly because it's putting out a lot of information and I have yet to see any real use of it outside of comments like, "Well this exists...". I did find two articles that were bold to do more than just present a link to the website. The second article had an intriguing point about how the Castrol Index discounts a midfielder's importance in games and ratings.

The website is incredibly disappointing in more than one way. The presentation is nothing more than a copy-and-paste result with bare minimum information. Sorting by position, or listing position at that, would be nice. Nationality would be an added plus. Player profiles, club profiles... There's a lot that could be added to bolster the Index and maybe gain some credibility, which would be great because statistics in soccer are awful and untrusting enough already.

All that aside, sometime around the 14th week of season I copied the information into an Excel document. I actually had completely forgotten I had did this so it was a bit of a treasure chest. A treasure chest for a stat-loving pirate. Anyway, I weighted the players' ratings by the minutes played and did some more mathematics to find a club's overall rating.

Club, Club's Rating, Games Played

LAG 7.84 15.0
NYRB 7.77 12.0
SSFC 7.73 14.0
FCD 7.65 12.9
HOU 7.51 13.0
CHIV 7.51 10.9
COLU 7.41 11.0
COLO 7.14 12.9
PHI 7.14 11.0
RSL 7.14 9.0
PORT 7.13 11.0
CHIC 7.04 11.0
SJ 6.93 11.0
NE 6.86 12.0
TORO 6.80 12.9
VAN 6.75 11.9
DC 6.69 11.0
KC 6.44 8.9

You'll notice errors in the numbers like "8.9 games played" but I think we can just chalk that up to minor players not getting put in the ratings. But it shouldn't affect the overall rating too much so I think we're safe.

Complying the new information the same way we get...

FCD 7.19 22.4
LAG 6.66 22.9
NYRB 6.37 22.3
SSFC 6.37 23.0
CHIV 6.36 21.9
COLU 6.30 23.0
RSL 6.26 18.9
HOU 6.16 20.0
COLO 6.06 23.8
CHIC 6.02 17.0
KC 6.01 20.8
PHI 5.94 18.7
PORT 5.69 21.6
SJ 5.60 22.2
NE 5.46 20.7
DC 5.29 21.2
VAN 4.87 20.6
TORO 4.55 22.2

A big drop off is apparent, not to mention clubs playing 22.2 games. The club ratings dropped an average 1.24 points overall. Toronto FC specifically went from a 6.8 to a 4.55. That means in the 9.3 game span (10 games, in reality) Toronto played a collective 1.4. Yikes. This isn't impossible to believe as they've been outscored 24-11 in the gap. But, amongst others, Alen Stevanovic, the 20 year old Swiz for Toronto FC is missing from the list. I had him tacked down at a 6.54 at 700 minutes after 13 games. (Currently he has been recalled back from his loan to Torino.) There are a handful of players who aren't on the list that have been on previously weeks so the gaps in numbers are somewhat explained.

Regardless, the bigger point is that there is a lot of potential in the Index that the MLS hasn't tapped into. Hopefully they're looking into something long term and just haven't announced anything at the moment, fairly typical MLS, but there's a good chance the MLS will take years to do anything with this.

But with this being a US-focused blog, I put in the hard-work to Wikipedia all the players' nationality and find the top 25 American players on the list.

Rank...Player...Age...Club...Caps with USMNT

1 Landon Donovan - 29 - Los Angeles Galaxy 136
2 George John - 24 - FC Dallas 0
3 Nat Borchers - 30 - Real Salt Lake 3
4 Chance Myers - 23 - Sporting Kansas City 0
5 Omar Gonzalez - 22 - Los Angeles Galaxy 2
6 Ugo Ihemelu - 28 - FC Dallas 2
7 Chris Wondolowski - 28 - San Jose Earthquakes 5
8 Brek Shea - 21 - FC Dallas 3
9 Chad Marshall - 26 - Columbus Crew 11
10 Danny Califf - 31 - Philadelphia Union 23
11 Jeff Parke - 29 - Seattle Sounders FC 0
12 Matt Besler - 24 - Sporting Kansas City 0
13 Geoff Cameron - 26 - Houston Dynamo 1
14 Sheanon Williams - 25 - Philadelphia Union 0
15 Drew Moor - 27 - Colorado Rapids 5
16 Mike Magee - 26 - Los Angeles Galaxy 0
17 Eddie Gaven - 24 - Columbus Crew 8
18 Bobby Boswell - 28 - Houston Dynamo 3
19 Nick LaBrocca - 26 - Chivas USA 0
20 Justin Braun - 24 - Chivas USA 0
21 Cory Gibbs - 31 - Chicago Fire 19
22 Zach Loyd - 24 - FC Dallas 1
23 Ned Grabavoy - 28 - Real Salt Lake 4
24 Heath Pearce - 27 - Chivas USA 32
25 Tim Ream - 23 - New York Red Bulls 6

August 10, 2011

USA vs Mexico: Recap, Ratings, and Stats

While typically a game against Mexico brings enough headlines and drama to the table, America was a more focused on their new coach and if he could revive a stagnated team. Jurgen Klinsmann announced his first roster call ups less than two weeks before the heated match against Mexico. The call ups contained familiar faces (some that had held their spot for years and some that had fallen out of contention) but also contained newer faces, specifically on defense.

USA opened in a 4-1-4-1 with a crowded midfield but a familiar lone forward Bob Bradley had toyed with to some degree. The first half showed lack of cohesiveness in the midfield, a frustrated attack, and a shakey backline. With one shot (arguably, at that) in the first half, America had little to show against a patient yet dangerous Mexican side. However the second half had role-reversals when the two sides changed dramatically. Mexico lost their creativity while subs for the US provided a spark to the team.

After 90+ minutes and some dubious reffing, both sides proudly left with a 1-1 draw. Mexico still reigns in North America as the number one team while USA took an obvious step forward with their own program.

Player Ratings

Landon Donovan - (11…8.5/2.5) - A typical game from the second most capped player in USMNT history. Drew some would-be penalties by penetrating the 18 and displayed his trademark high-pressure counter multiple times.

Kyle Beckerman - (9.5…6.5/3)
- The MLS all-star showed he could play at Mexico's pace, a top ten team in the world, according to Klinsman. He provided a cork in the middle of the field defensively but his offensive input left us wanting more. He didn't press too high, which is acceptable as it wasn't his role, but he didn't start too many attacks with his feet.

Steve Cherundolo - (9...6.5/2.5)
- There has been a small amount of things that have stayed consistent with the Americans after up and down play in the past two years. One of those things is Steve Cherundolo. Although there was less service from Cherundolo with in-swinging balls as usual, the Mexican attack had nothing to show for on the right side of the field. The main altercation he faced, a shoving match that ended with Tim Howard waltzing over like Mr. Wilson to Dennis, Cherundolo greeted with a warm, "How are you?" smile. But time is not on Cherundolo's side. Currently sitting at 32 years old and with Timmy Chandler in the shadows, one has to wonder where Dolo will be come 2014.

Jose Torres - (9…6/3)
- After starting in the World Cup game against Solvenia, Jose Torres went MIA with the national squad. The crafty left-footer started the game outside and struggled significantly with positioning and field vision. In the second half he was moved to the middle and his comfort level rose considerably. While this wasn't his best game, Torres gave flashes of speed and playmaking ability that makes us excited for the future. And after a so-so play, he still received praise from multiple commentators, one calling him a possible number 10 player for the team, which makes us wonder all the more why he wasn't around before August.

Michael Bradley - (8.5...6/2.5)
- Bradley opened the game in more of an attacking role with a CAM placement. He played his usual brash, smart game but more than once subsided into his CDM position, widening an already large gap between Buddle and the rest of the team. This game doesn't rule out possibilities of him playing CAM or going back to the defense so it'll be interesting where Klinsman puts him in the future. But all nay-sayers are starting to go quiet after his overall strong performance.

Edgar Castillo - (8.5...2.5/6)
- "Nervous train wreck" may be the best term to describe Castillo's play. He's 24, so he's not done for, but Castillo needs to pick up his mental game speed if he wants to be a part of anything in 2014.

Carlos Bocanegra - (8.5...4.5/4) - The captain maintained his armband but had trouble playing alongside Fiscal. Positioning and knowing when to attack/drop in the back plagued Bocanegra and Fiscal as well. While he did have a terrific header on goal, he but didn't provide too much more outside of that.

Michael Fiscal - (7.5...4/3.5) - Fared significantly better than Castillo. His aggressive play isn't new to American defense and nor was his boot-it strategy either.

Jermaine Jones - (6.5...4.5/2)
- Largely blasted by multiple analysts after the game but probably because he was so under the radar. He came within inches of scoring early on and provided some nice, long balls out of the back. While he didn't insert himself in the offense like usual, he didn't hurt the team either. In the end he played a reserved CDM role for 60 minutes.

Brek Shea - (5...4.5/0.5) - Came in at the 60th minute and made a strong case for his role in the future. His touch was great throughout the 30+ minutes of play, whether it was a one-touch pass or a controlling touch. He jump started an eager offense and played a smart, well-played ball to Rogers on the back post for the goal. Almost came away his a goal himself with a shot from a top the 18 but a good save kept it out.

Tim Howard - (4.5/3.5...1) - Americans are spoiled to think Howard could have saved the goal.

Edson Buddle - (4...1.5/2.5) - Incredibly frustrating to watch Buddle's play. The gap between the midfield and striker was too much for anyone. It felt somewhat of a wasted night for Buddle.

Juan Agudelo - (4...3.5/0.5) - Still dribbles with his head down but his willingness to come back on defense helped set up a great pass to Rogers that should have led to a red card on the obvious-goal-stopping foul. Possibly the most creative player for America but can't really negate that by taking on too many defenders.

Robbie Rogers - (3.5...3/0.5) - Was given a lot of room and was out of positioning on the right with Cherundolo multiple times but the lone goal scorer displayed his speed and willingness to work tonight.

Ricardo Clark - (1...1.0/0.0) - A few minutes of game time but made the most of it. Unfortunately not too many people have forgotten about his turnover in the Ghana game but luckily he only has to impress Klinsman not drunkards.
Game Stats

Subjective Point Graphs


First Half

USA - 10.30
Mexico - 29.10


Second Half
USA - 38.93
Mexico - 12.43

Final
USA - 49.23
Mexico - 41.53

Momentum Graphs


First Half Dominance
USA - 9
Mexico - 22
None - 69

GG Rating - 16/100


Second Half Dominance
USA - 36
Mexico - 0
None - 64

GG Rating - 31/100

Final
USA - 22
Mexico - 11
None - 67

GG Rating - 23/100

Numbers

***Example Category***
Team - Chances...Threat Rate/100
Team - Chances...Threat Rate/100

First Half
Possession
USA - 16...8.5
Mexico - 39...9.8

Passing
USA - 17...19.3
Mexico - 46...12.2

Shooting
USA - 1...6.0
Mexico - 6...23.3

Second Half
Possession
USA - 27...19.6
Mexico - 23...6.2

Passing
USA - 25...17.2
Mexico - 23...10.7

Shooting
USA - 10...28.2
Mexico - 4...18.0

Final
Possession
USA - 43...15.5
Mexico - 62...8.5

Passing
USA - 42...18.0
Mexico - 69...11.7

Shooting
USA - 11...26.2
Mexico - 10...21.2

Conclusion

While a win over Mexico would have been nice, the real goal in Philadelphia was determining specific player evaluation and Klinsman's cohesiveness with the team. Aside from players who didn't perform, both came to light. Certain players solidified their place with the team (unfortunately for some, it is away from it for some time) and Klinsman put a decent lineup together on short notice. His subs were as effective as could be and the energy everyone was buzzing about is more than encouraging. Looking forward, Klinsman is managing an aging squad and needs young players to step up fast and hopefully this game was a sign of things to come.

Pretty interesting video with post-game player commentary. Gives you an idea of what the players are looking at in a game.